Contrarian 2021

Never too early to put 2020 in our rearview mirror. But one of the biggest life lessons from 2020 is that the unexpected can happen and that everything we thought about the world in January 2020 pretty much was wrong.

So here is a contrarian view of life and the world from a San Francisco based, dad, white guy, in technology for 2021. Feel free to sound off in comments or on Twitter 😃

1. Global cities will roar back, stronger than in 2019, and with a new purpose that is inclusive and tooled for the next 20 years. Alignment with the citizenry, outdoor life, and with strengthen resolve for services that serve the most disenfranchised. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/10/how-disaster-shaped-the-modern-city/615484/
2. More than one technology behemoths will be broken-up, spurring more innovation in tech hubs than we have ever seen. It will start to feel like the 1990s tech boom and it won’t be driven by F.A.N.G.M.
3. China / US relations will warm due to economic pressures for the two nations mutual assured economic benefit (trade, ideas, tech, progress)
4. There will be no full-proof vaccine for COVID (yet), but that will not matter as much as we will be living at 95% of normal due to our learning and application of living with the virus for 12+ months
5. Social justice will continue across the globe, amplifying positive change to 95% of the world’s population that is not in the US. The social change will be the global revolution of our lifetimes because it is relatable in nearly all societies and doesn’t have a natural political boundry.
6. The Everything at Home craze — eCommerce, gaming, TikTok, Netflix — will take a sudden dip as the global world reconnects and reboots with the tangible. Book reading soars, RV’ing continues, hiking outdoors becomes the new Peloton but outdoors.
7. Stock market returns to 2019 levels, while unemployment dips. As these are no longer correlated, and the equity market reflects wealth created and held by 5% of the US population, the US majority don’t care whatsoever, and the real-economy doesn’t miss a beat. The Stock market is not correlated in major ways with real economic activity, at least for a few years while the company lead world catches up with the on the ground world.
8. There is a large uptick across Western civilization in religious activity to structure and organize ones’ life. Mass, Temple, Mosque attendance in the US and Europe are at their highest levels since post-WWII.
9. Populism dies on the vine; killed by its response to COVID. The progressive elements of populism are absorbed into the liberal, progressive parties moving the overall spectrum to the right, but not in a major way. People re seeking harmony for a time being, concluding the Populist revolution has succeeded in bringing about their voice to the political table.
10. Majority of Americans align with Climate Change as a priority, but at a local level first. Everyone looks to save their own backyard — local and city parks as they spent the last 12 months enjoying them on walks, hikes, and camping. Then a movement to preserve and improve state parks and national parks expands to resources and more broadly to adjacent topics.